As April progresses, Bitcoin is experiencing renewed bullish momentum, after surging to around $73,300 after a 9% price increase over the past week. Underneath this price action, fresh on-chain and market structure data point to a deeper shift in liquidity dynamics.
OTC Dominance In Bitcoin Transactions Signals Potential Supply Shock
In a QuickTake post on April 11, market analyst GugaOnChain shares recent data from the “Bitcoin: OTC vs Exchange Dominance Share (24h %)” indicator, showing that OTC transactions now account for 82.26% of total settlement volume, placing the market firmly within the “Institutional Alert Zone” (80–90%).
Out of a total daily settlement volume of 706,000 BTC, valued at approximately $51.5 billion, only about 17.14% flowed through traditional centralized exchange (CEX) order books. This imbalance shows that public liquidity on exchanges is drying up, with large players increasingly inclined to trade off-market.
Considering this development, GugaOnChain warns traders against taking short positions in the current environment. This is because the dominance of OTC accumulation suggests a potential supply shock; therefore, any spike in spot demand can trigger sharp and violent upward price movements that would liquidate such bearish positions.
To validate that this OTC activity reflects genuine accumulation rather than distribution, the seasoned analyst introduces additional data from the “Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow – Spent Output Age Bands” metric. The findings here showed that only 94.68 BTC of coins older than six months were deposited into exchanges over the last 24 hours. Compared to the 706,000 BTC moved across the network during the same period, this indicates that long-term holders remain largely inactive and are not selling into current price strength.
Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Ethereum Price Will Rise 400% To $8,000 In 6 Months, And There’s A Pattern Behind It
Coinbase Dominates Residual Exchange Flows
Within the remaining 17.14% of trading activity on centralized exchanges, GugaOnChain sheds further light on capital distribution, thereby reinforcing institutional influence. American exchange Coinbase leads decisively, accounting for 58.21% of all CEX flows. Its dominance is closely tied to its role as custodian for 8 of the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, making it a primary gateway for institutional capital.
Binance follows with 22.13%, maintaining its position as the largest global exchange by volume, though its user base remains more retail-driven. Meanwhile, Kraken captures 6.44% of flows, reflecting its focus on regulatory compliance and institutional clients, albeit at a smaller scale. Together, this distribution highlights a market increasingly shaped by institutional players, both on and off exchanges.
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